Erlanger, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

436
FXUS61 KILN 191104
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues with thunderstorms possible at
times through Monday. Some of these storms will have the potential to
be severe over the weekend and also produce heavy rainfall. Drier
conditions move in for Tuesday and Wednesday with heat starting to
build in mid way through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across southeastern
portions of the region this morning. Elsewhere, generally dry
conditions are present. There is a cut off to the widespread cloud
cover and north of this cutoff already seeing some stratus and fog
development. In this area have patchy dense fog mention in the
forecast and will add to the HWO as well. Across southern portions of
the region it will take longer and therefore just bring in a patchy
fog mention. Temperatures will range overnight from the low to middle
60s north to near 70 near and south of the Ohio River.

For the day today, there is some question on the coverage of
thunderstorms. Latest model trends have indicated drier conditions
for a larger portion of the day with the potential for some storms
late in the day. The severe threat is conditional, if the storms do
develop then the environment is such that damaging winds will be a
possibility along with pockets of heavy rainfall and potential for
flash flooding. Believe better chance for storms will be during the
evening hours. While there is some uncertainty in severe potential,
will continue to mention severe threat in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Some convective activity will be possible at the start of the tonight
period. Convection that does develop will have the potential for
damaging winds. Models are now focusing more on convective potential
for Sunday. Sunday now looks to have more potential for heavy rain
and flash flood potential. There is also the potential for damaging
winds on Sunday as well, especially across the southern half of the
forecast area.

Lows tonight are expected to be in the low 70s with highs on Sunday
in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The frontal boundary will continue to sag south to near and south of
the Ohio River Sunday night. Depending on its southward progress,
there could be diurnally enhanced convection Monday afternoon in
northern Kentucky. Further north, drier air arrives in light
northeasterly flow as surface high pressure scoots across the Great
Lakes; leading to lower PoPs.

The high exits to the east on Tuesday. Surface winds will slowly
veer to the southeast and south. However, forcing will be weak and
the consensus in the guidance is for a dry day.

Mid level ridging will then build into the region from the southwest
through mid week with increasing heights. This will lead to warmer
temperatures along with some lower end chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Heat indices will warm back into the 90s during the
afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stratus and fog have developed, however KCMH has stayed VFR. Quite
variable conditions with LIFR to VFR across the region. Conditions
improve by late morning. Some question on when thunderstorms will
develop and the amount of coverage. Hold off on thunderstorm
potential until later in the day. Have vsbys reduced with
thunderstorms that are in the forecast for later in the day. Another
wave is expected to move through late in the overnight Saturday
night.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely through Monday. MVFR ceilings are
possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...